The holiday season is officially underway in Greater Phoenix, bringing seasonal shifts to the local housing market. In the latest market update from Myriad Real Estate Group, CEO Danny Brown broke down listing trends, interest rate dynamics, and the tactical moves buyers and sellers need to make before the end of the year.
Check out the video to watch Danny Brown break down the latest Phoenix housing numbers and our team's end-of-year market strategy.
The Seasonal Shift: Listings Up, Buyer Demand Holding Steady
Fall in the Valley usually triggers a noticeable bump in market activity. Cooler weather and returning winter visitors bring renewed energy, leading sellers to list their properties to capture that seasonal interest. Active inventory across Greater Phoenix recently climbed above 20,000 homes.
Buyer activity tends to taper as Thanksgiving and December approach. Because listing volume is outpacing buyer demand, the market dynamic has shifted distinctly in favor of shoppers looking for leverage.
Where Mortgage Rates Stand Right Now
Mortgage rates experienced significant volatility after the 10-year Treasury briefly touched highs not seen since the mid-2000s, pushing mortgage rates well into the mid-7% territory.
As capital shifted out of tech trades and back into Treasuries, the 10-year yield backed down into the high 4% range, settling mortgage rates into the low 7% bracket. Given broader economic variables including low unemployment, oil prices, and overseas geopolitical factors, mortgage rates will likely remain range-bound in the low 7s through the remainder of the year.
What Buyers Need to Know: Concessions, Repairs, and Better Financing
With inventory surpassing 20,000 active listings, buyers have significant negotiating power. Sellers are competing for attention, opening the door for meaningful purchase concessions.
Winning Concessions at the Closing Table
Buyers are securing key deal terms that were difficult to get in previous years:
Seller-Paid Rate Buydowns: Lowering monthly payments during the initial years of ownership.
Full Closing Cost Credits: Reducing the out-of-pocket cash needed on closing day.
Major Capital Repairs: Sellers are agreeing to significant items like brand-new roofs and replacement HVAC units.
Rethinking the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage
Locking in a 30-year fixed loan at today's rates can be one of the most expensive ways to buy real estate. A 7-year Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM) often offers an initial interest rate 1.00% to 1.50% lower than a standard 30-year fixed rate.
Historical data shows that homeowners refinance on average every two years and move or sell every 7 to 10 years due to life changes. Choosing a lower 7-year ARM rate and layering on a seller-paid rate buydown creates substantial monthly savings while preserving the flexibility to refinance when rates improve.
What Sellers Need to Know: Accurate Pricing and the Rule of 10
For sellers, today's market requires realistic pricing and proactive marketing.
Offer Incentives in the Listing
Rather than waiting for lowball offers or prolonged negotiations, advertise concessions directly in the listing narrative. Clearly stating an openness to fund buyer closing costs or rate buydowns attracts serious buyers who might otherwise hesitate due to affordability.
The Reality of Days on Market
While the average property in Greater Phoenix sits on the market for roughly 90 days, that timeline shrinks to 14 days once a home reaches accurate fair market value. Roughly 60% of homes undergo at least one price reduction, and once priced correctly, homes are closing at approximately 98% of that adjusted list price.
The Rule of 10 Strategy
If a home goes through two consecutive weekends (roughly 10 days) without an offer, it is time for an immediate price improvement. Moving quickly to find fair market value keeps listings fresh and prevents extended market stagnation.
Whether you want to negotiate seller credits on your next home purchase or need an aggressive pricing strategy to sell before the new year, our team is here to guide you. Reach out to Myriad Real Estate Group to discuss your real estate plans.